Hillary Clinton is rightly celebrating her larger-than-expected wins in Ohio and Texas. Those victories do not dethrone Barack Obama from his frontrunner status. But they do guarantee that the race will go on for at least a couple more months, and they give Clinton a small sliver of hope that she still can win the nomination. 

From one perspective, Hillary Clinton disproved her doubters. With a string of 11 straight victories, oceans of money, and an increasing number of “superdelegate” endorsements, Obama had been cruising to victory. In the days before March 4, surveys showed Clinton with only a five-point edge in Ohio and tied or even behind in Texas, two states where she had previously held huge leads. The final result—with Clinton winning the popular vote by ten points in Ohio and by four points in Texas—confounded pollster predictions and gave Clinton a much-needed boost in confidence.

But viewed from a higher altitude, the Clinton victory does not do much to make up for Obama’s gains since Super Tuesday (February 5). When the delegates were counted that night, the race was virtually tied. It was clear that the states immediately following Super Tuesday favored Obama, but it seemed that Clinton would be equally strong in Ohio and Texas on March 4. Obama, however, did much better than expected in those earlier contests. Many assumed that Obama would win in Maryland, the District of Columbia, and Virginia, but no one anticipated he would win all of the 11 immediate post-Super Tuesday contests. 

And his margins of victory were surprisingly large. Obama won over 100 more delegates than Clinton in those 11 contests. The smallest victory margin he had was 17 points in Wisconsin. Nine of his 11 victories were by more than 20 points. After such an impressive showing of strength, Obama further added to his delegate total by attracting pledges from previously uncommitted superdelegates and even persuading a few pro-Clinton superdelegates to change their allegiances. 

Clinton’s wins in Ohio and Texas are impressive, but they pale by comparison to Obama’s performance in February. The results of the caucus portion of the Texas vote are still being tallied, but Clinton’s net gain from March 4 is not likely to exceed 20 delegates and could be fewer than ten. Meanwhile, Obama won the Wyoming caucus on Saturday and is likely to win the Mississippi primary on Tuesday.

Clinton cannot lose any ground among Democratic superdelegates before the Pennsylvania primary on April 22.

If Clinton had lost in Texas and Ohio, she would have withdrawn. If she had won more narrowly, she might have been tempted to stay in, but she would have had no real chance of winning the nomination. After her substantial wins, she still has a chance. She faces an uphill battle, but if a number of things break right for her, she might be able to pull herself back into the race. What does Clinton need to do? 

First, staunch the flow of superdelegates to Obama. Superdelegates gravitate to a frontrunner. Clinton’s wins might be impressive enough to discourage superdelegates from jumping on the Obama bandwagon. She cannot lose any ground among superdelegates before the Pennsylvania primary on April 22. 

Second, she needs to win Pennsylvania in at least as impressive fashion as she won Ohio—by ten points or more. That would likely yield her a net gain of at least 20 delegates. 

Even if she accomplishes these two tasks, she will still trail in the overall delegate count. After Pennsylvania, the remaining states look to break evenly for Obama and Clinton. North Carolina and Indiana vote on May 6, with Obama likely to win the former and Clinton the latter. On May 20, Obama will be favored in Oregon and Clinton in Kentucky. 

Simply holding her own in those contests is not enough; Clinton would lose because she would not be able to close the delegate gap. 

The third leg in a possible Clinton comeback would be for Michigan and Florida to reschedule their primaries for June. Clinton will get nowhere by arguing that the January results from those two uncontested primaries should count. But national party rules allow for Michigan and Florida to schedule new contests. It would be disastrous for her if they decided to hold caucuses instead of primaries; Obama has won most low-turnout caucuses handily. But if both states schedule primaries in June, about 400 additional delegates will be in play in states where Clinton is strong. 

It is not the most likely scenario, but if Clinton manages to curb superdelegate endorsements of Obama, wins Pennsylvania big, and prevails in rescheduled Florida and Michigan primaries, then she will genuinely deserve the nickname her husband once claimed: the comeback kid. 

John C. Fortier is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.