From a February 11 speech by Charles Evans, president and CEO of the Chicago Fed:

“The factors that produced the sharp decline in output in the second half of last year are still in play today. Consequently, I expect real GDP will fall markedly in the first half of 2009. I am currently projecting that GDP will begin to expand some later in 2009, but not enough to offset the declines in the first half of the year. In part, this expected pickup reflects the support from both traditional and nontraditional monetary policies, fiscal actions already taken to address the strains in financial markets, and progress that financial markets themselves make in working through their difficulties. In addition, the new fiscal stimulus package will boost output. However, its full size and impact are still unclear, and our forecast could need some recalibration as we gain knowledge on how the package is affecting the economy. Looking out a bit further, I expect the pace of GDP growth to move back up in the neighborhood of potential as we move through 2010. However, I do not see growth as being strong enough to make much progress in closing resource gaps over this period. Indeed, the unemployment rate—the main resource gap measure in the labor market—is likely to rise into 2010.”

Read the whole thing.