Datapoints

Building the Base 03/03/2008 

When a party’s presidential nominee becomes known, Gallup stops asking the party faithful which candidate they favor. Relative to past presumptive nominees, how much support does John McCain have? In Gallup’s final poll about the nomination contest, 51 percent of Republicans supported McCain. This is slightly less than the 57 percent who supported George W. Bush at a similar point in 2000. At that time, McCain was second with 34 percent, which is slightly higher than Mike Huckabee’s level of support today. Source: The Gallup Organization.

"We’re in Crisis..." 02/29/2008 

Americans are more optimistic about how things are closer to home than about national conditions, a finding that is fairly consistent in public opinion polling. According to a recent poll by Harris Interactive, 76 percent of Americans say that things in their personal lives are “going in the right direction,” compared to just 23 percent that say that about the country as a whole. Those with more income record slightly more satisfaction than those with less: 88 percent of people making $100,000 or more per year say things in their personal lives are going in the right direction, compared to the 63 percent of people making $35,000 a year or less who say so. Source: Harris Interactive, February 2008.

El Voto 02/28/2008 

As the race for the Democratic presidential nomination accelerates, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama are paying close attention to the voting patterns of specific racial and ethnic groups. This is especially true of Hispanics, who could account for a third or more of the voters in Tuesday’s Democratic primary in Texas. According to mid-February Gallup figures, Obama now leads Clinton among Hispanic Democrats nationally by 50 percent to 46 percent, a huge swing from Gallup’s early February compilation when Clinton led Obama by 63 percent to 32 percent. Obama has retained his lead among black Democrats nationally, with 77 percent supporting him and only 20 percent supporting Clinton. Source: The Gallup Organization, February 2008.

Nader Now 02/27/2008 

Ralph Nader announced his candidacy for the presidency on Sunday, fueling speculation that he might serve as a spoiler in this year’s election. Will he do better in 2008 than he did in his earlier bids? In a February 2007 poll, 3 percent of Americans said they would definitely vote for him and 14 percent said they might do so (Nader got 2.7 percent of the national vote in 2000, but only a fraction of that in 2004). Nader’s public ratings are hardly stellar: when asked whether they wanted him to enter this year’s presidential race, a strong majority (65 percent) said they did not. A Fox News poll conducted in June found that more Americans (42 percent) had an unfavorable view of Nader than a favorable one (30 percent). Source: Fox News/Opinion Dynamics, February 2007.

On Sale? 02/26/2008 

Adding to an increasingly gloomy economic forecast, the National Association of Realtors recently predicted that housing prices will decline by an additional 1.2 percent this year. According to a recent Gallup poll, the American public is similarly pessimistic. Thirty-five percent of Americans expect average home prices in their area to fall, compared to 29 percent that expect them to rise. When Gallup asked the question in May 2005, 70 percent of Americans said that they expected home prices to rise, while only 5 percent expected them to fall. Source: The Gallup Organization, latest that of January 2008.

Money Matters 02/24/2008 

With recession fears looming, personal economic anxiety is inching up. In a recent Los Angeles Times/ Bloomberg poll, 31 percent of Americans described their financial situation as fairly or very shaky, up from 28 percent who gave that response in January 2007. In a different survey, 34 percent of Americans told Gallup that they had been "worried about money yesterday," with 10 percent saying they had been "very worried." Eight percent of people said they had been worried about losing their job. Source: The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg, latest that of January 2008.

Movie Madness 02/22/2008 

Film—and fashion—will take center stage at this Sunday’s Academy Awards. But glitz aside, just how influential is Hollywood? According to recent Time magazine poll, 10 percent of Americans say that a movie or a documentary inspired them to contact a politician, and roughly the same percentage say that a film inspired them to vote differently. Sixteen percent say that a movie or a documentary prompted them to donate to a charity; 14 percent say that a film spurred them to volunteer for a cause. Nearly three in ten say that a movie or a documentary caused them to change their mind about an issue. Source: ABT SRBI for Time, February 2008.

What Albatross? 02/21/2008 

Many pundits have speculated that Iraq may be an albatross for the Republican presidential nominee. But according to a new Gallup poll, a majority of Americans think Republican John McCain would handle Iraq better than either of the Democratic frontrunners. Source: The Gallup Organization, February 2008.

Health Care Woes 02/20/2008 

Dissatisfaction with health care is widespread across the globe, a new survey by Harris Interactive, France 24, and the International Herald Tribune reports. Only in one country (Spain) of the six surveyed did more people say their country was handling the issue “well” rather than “badly.” Americans were the most critical: 68 percent of them said the United States was handling health care badly. Source: Harris Interactive, France 24, International Herald Tribune, January 2008.

A Close Contest 02/19/2008 

The race for the Democratic presidential nomination heads to Hawaii and Wisconsin today, with Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama neck-and-neck in the delegate count. If a PSRA/ Newsweek poll conducted in early February is any indication, neither has a significant edge among Democrats nationally. Forty-two percent of Democrats say they would most like to see Obama become the Democratic Party’s candidate, compared to 41 percent who say they prefer Clinton. Strength of opinion is similarly split: 60 percent of Obama’s supporters, compared to 62 percent of Clinton’s supporters, describe their support as strong. Forty-three percent of Democrats say Clinton comes closer to their way of thinking on major issues; 42 percent gave that response for Obama. And 84 percent of Democrats say they would be satisfied with a Clinton candidacy—identical to the 84 percent that said they would be satisfied if Obama is the candidate. Source: PSRA/ Newsweek, February 2008.